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From Ayodhya to Jantar Mantar: Uddhav reinvents Sena (UBT) strategy amid threat of split

Mumbai, July 24 (IANS) Facing existential threats due to the high-profile defections by six Lok Sabha MPs who joined the Eknath Shinde faction, the Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray is deploying a three-pronged approach to save the party, i.e. ideological reclaiming, issue-based youth mobilisation, and constitutional litigation.

Rather than playing defence after losing key party members, the Sena (UBT) is attempting to shift the political momentum back onto the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti/NDA coalition.

Thackeray has raised the issue of financial irregularities in the Shri Ram Temple donations by launching a statewide “Ram Raksha” campaign and a “BJP-free Ram movement.”

This is important as Hindutva has traditionally been the BJP’s sole ideological moat. By questioning the financial integrity of the Ram Temple movement and demanding accountability for donations (especially the silver bricks), Thackeray has targeted the BJP’s core voter base.

It forced the BJP onto the defensive on its home turf. Challenging the BJP in its ideological citadel of Nagpur, is designed to signal to traditional Sena voters that the UBT faction has not abandoned its core ideological roots despite political realignments.

Visiting Jantar Mantar, condemning the police lathi-charge on NEET paper leak protesters, comparing the government to Colonial rulers, and setting up free legal aid cells, Thackeray for a while has changed track beyond the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s traditional hyper-ethno-nationalist and religious appeal to retain relevance among younger, urban, and middle-class voters.

Joining student protests Uddhav Thackeray highlighted governance failures in education, exam integrity and state heavy-handedness. The comparison to Colonial rule and past democratic precedents like Indira Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, aimed to frame the ruling alliance as autocratic, thus appealing to neutral and youth voters affected by systemic administrative failures.

While the SC declined an interim stay on July 22, 2026, obtaining show-cause notices against the Speaker, Secretariat, and rebel MPs keeps a legal sword hanging over the Shinde faction. Legally, it tests the boundaries of the anti-defection law regarding split vs merger provisions when an original party maintains its independent legal identity.

Politically, it framed the rebel MPs as opportunists who betrayed the public mandate under which they were elected. Historically, the split between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray fragmented the traditional Sena voter base in the Mumbai-Thane-Konkan belt.

Re-aligning with Raj Thackeray creates a formidable regional bloc. It consolidates the Marathi vote in upcoming civic body (BMC) and state-level contests, presenting a unified front that is difficult for national parties to divide.

While Thackeray’s aggressive posture has created immediate momentum, several vulnerabilities remain. The ongoing defection of elected MPs/MLAs undermines organisational stability at the constituency level, even if public sympathy favours the UBT faction.

Political observers said that balancing hardline Hindutva messaging through Ram Temple campaigns with broader social/youth issues and coalition politics requires careful calibration to avoid alienating either traditional nationalists or secular alliance partners.

Constitutional litigations in the Supreme Court often stretch over long periods. Without immediate legal stays, the political reality on the ground (recognised mergers) can become difficult to reverse practically before major election cycles.

However, Thackeray through his recent actions signals that his party is refusing to be sidelined into regional irrelevance. By combining ideological counter-attacks, constitutional challenges, youth mobilisation, and tactical regional unity, he is attempting to frame the broader conflict as a fight for democratic accountability and local identity against centralised power.

(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.)

–IANS

sj/rad