Kuala Lumpur, March 24 (IANS) Economists have trimmed ASEAN-6 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 4.5 per cent in 2026 from 4.8 per cent, and to 4.7 per cent in 2027 from 4.8 per cent, due to the fallout of the conflict in West Asia.
The ASEAN-6 nations refer to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a recent note that the downgrades are larger for the Philippines (-0.4 percentage points), Vietnam (-0.4 percentage points) and Thailand (-0.3 percentage points).
“Surging energy prices and disruptions to commodity supplies will be negative for most ASEAN countries, which are net oil and gas importers,” said the research house.
According to Maybank, Malaysia is the only country in the region that stands out as a net energy exporter, which will help cushion the impact of the Middle East shock.
It also said a steep rise in energy prices will worsen the current account balances and weaken the currencies of ASEAN’s net energy importers, reports Xinhua news agency.
Maybank has also raised ASEAN-6 inflation forecast to 2.7 per cent in 2026 (from 2.2 per cent) and 2.7 per cent in 2027 (from 2.5 per cent), with higher adjustments for Thailand (+0.8 percentage points in 2026), the Philippines (+0.5 percentage points), and Indonesia (+0.5 percentage points).
“The energy price shock has short-circuited the monetary easing cycle… Higher energy prices and fuel subsidies will add to the fiscal burdens of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Indonesia’s 3 per cent fiscal deficit ceiling may be tested if the oil shock is protracted,” it added.
Countries worldwide are taking drastic measures to conserve fuel and ensure continued energy access for their people in the wake of the disruption in oil and gas supplies triggered by the escalation in the Middle East conflict.
The effect of the current disruptions in West Asia is equivalent to the two major oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 natural gas crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine, all put together, according to a top official of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Nations across Asia, Africa, and Europe have adopted a range of extraordinary steps, including additional public holidays, work-from-home mandates, fuel rationing, and industrial shutdowns to extend limited fuel reserves.
–IANS
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