Chances of smaller alliance partners turning out as tailenders and losing their wickets on the bouncy pitch of Lok Sabha election 2024 cannot be ruled out.
The utility of tailenders is always questionable, especially in politics. BJP should remember the result of 2015 Bihar Assembly election when it batted with tailenders and lost the poll.
Currently, in Bihar, five parties are in alliance with BJP for the Lok Sabha poll 2024. These are — Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party Ram Vilash LJPR, Pasupati Kumar Paras-led Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP), Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD), Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) and Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insan Party (VIP).
Though these leaders represent a section of voters of their own castes and communities but its transformation into votes is not certain. Moreover, how they manage to shift their voters in favour of BJP is also yet to be seen.
Sixteen per cent voters in Bihar belong to Dalit and Mahadalit communities and BJP is eyeing on this big chunk of votes through leaders like Chirag Paswan, Pasupati Kumar Paras, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Mukesh Sahani.
When it comes to Chirag Paswan, he is the most influential leader in the basket of Narendra Modi in Bihar. He holds the political legacy of his late father Ram Vilas Paswan, the great Dalit leader of the country. He represents Dusadh (Paswan) caste in Bihar having 6 per cent voters across the state.
Besides, other Dalit castes also support Chirag Paswan. He has proved his popularity during bypolls of Mukama, Gopalganj and Kurhani when he turned out to be a crowd puller leader for BJP and helped it in victory of Gopalganj seat.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Ram Vilash Paswan was alive and contested on six seats. He had delivered 100 per cent results by winning all six seats.
However, the political situation of 2019 was different as the Modi wave was still in the country, especially in the Hindi belt. The situation is however changing as the Narendra Modi government is facing huge anti-incumbency.
Till 2019 Lok Sabha and 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls, the leaders of other parties did not know the poll strategy of dividing the votes of opposition parties through ‘vote katwa’. Now, opposition leaders know the poll strategy of BJP and hence made an alliance called INDIA.
The political situation of Chirag Paswan changed in the 2020 Assembly polls after the demise of his father Ram Vilash Paswan. Moreover, his party LJP was also split in 2021 and a big chunk of five MPs went with his uncle Pasupati Kumar Paras. In the 2020 Assembly election too, LJP performed miserably within only one seat and the lone MLA named Raj Kumar joined JD(U).
For the general elections, though Chirag Paswan has the votes of his caste, Pasupati Kumar Paras cannot be ignored. He may take away one or two per cent votes out of total 6 per cent Paswan votes in the state.
Despite BJP’s all-out efforts, Chirag and Paras have not united officially. Ram Vilash Paswan was considered a “scientist” of politics. People say that he had the farsightedness to gauge which alliance would form the government in the country. It will be interesting to see whether Chirag Paswan or Pasupati Kumar Paras have the same quality.
Jitan Ram Manjhi, the Mahadalit leader of Bihar belongs to Musahar caste which accounts for around three per cent population especially in Gaya, Jahanabad, Purnea, Khagaria and Arwal district.
Manjhi started his political career in 1980 but the turning point came in his life in 2014 when Nitish Kumar resigned from the post of chief minister and gave the post to Jitan Ram Manjhi.
At that time, Nitish Kumar was thinking that Jitan Ram Manjhi would be a low profile leader who would ensure Kurmi, Koiri (Lav-Kush), Dalit and Mahadalit votes in favour of JD(U) but within two months, he started ignoring Nitish Kumar.
The situation reached such a stage where JD(U) which had 118 MLAs went to Greater Noida and stayed in a five star hotel Crowne Plaza. They paraded before President Pranab Mukherjee in favour of Nitish Kumar and he became the chief minister again before the crucial 2015 Assembly election.
In the 2020 Assembly election, Jitan Ram Manjhi was part of NDA and contested on seven seats under the quota of JD(U). He gave an impressive performance by winning four seats. When Nitish Kumar separated from NDA in August 2022, Jitan Ram Manjhi also came out with him and formed the government with Mahagathbandhan.
Now, Jitan Ram Manjhi has quit Mahagathbandhan and BJP is eyeing on 3 per cent Mahadalit votes of Musahar caste.
Upendra Kushwaha, a prominent force in Kushwaha Koiri) community, has around 7 per cent voters in Bihar. He was a professor of political science and known by the name of Upendra Singh.
On Nitish Kumar’s advice, he picked Kushwaha to take a natural representation of the Kushwaha community.
His political career was never stable. Nitish Kumar was impressed with Upendra Kushwaha due to his political acumen. Kushwaha community has 7 per cent of voters and its numbers are higher than Kurmi, whose biggest leader is Nitish Kumar.
Kushwaha community has sizable population in districts like Rohtas, kaimur, Bhojpur, Aurangabad, Khagaria,, Nalanda, Munger, Samastipur, West Champaran and East Champaran.
Upendra Kushwaha was first time elected from Jandaha in Vaishali district in 2000 and soon became the trusted person of Nitish Kumar. In 2004, Samata Party merged into JD(U) and Nitish made him leader of opposition in Bihar Assembly.
However, Kushwaha is an ambitious person and his over ambitious nature turned out to be a reason for souring his relation with Nitish. In 2007, he separated from JD(U) and formed Rashtriya Samata Party in 2009. As he lost the Lok Sabha election badly, he returned to Nitish who sent him to Rajya Sabha.
In 2013, he had a dispute with Nitish Kumar over seat distribution following which he left JD(U). He formed Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and went with NDA. In 2014 during the Modi wave, the NDA had given three seats of Lok Sabha and he won all three seats. He himself contested from two places, Karakat in Rohtas and Ujiyarpur and won both the seats. He became the minister of state for human resources till 2017.
At that time, Nitish Kumar distanced himself from the Mahagathbandhan and joined the NDA.
Upendra Kushwaha objected to inclusion of Nitish Kumar in NDA but as BJP did not pay heed, he resigned from the ministry.
He joined Mahagathbandhan in 2019 Lok Sabha poll but lost from Karakat and Ujiyarpur.
In the assembly election, he formed an alliance with AIMIM and BSP. He was the CM face of the alliance but his party performed badly and lost all seats. He himself lost the Assembly polls in 2020.
Karakat is considered as a constituency where Kushwaha voters are in large numbers. In 2019, Upendra Kushwaha may lose the election but achieved more than 3 lakh votes. He lost that election to JD(U) Mahabali Singh.
Mukesh Sahani is a leader who established himself as “Son of Mallah” (Fishermen community) having titles like Sahani and Nishadh in Bihar. Among others, his party is the youngest in Bihar with the experience of only two elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, his party failed to win a single seat while in 2020, he shifted his goal post from mahagathbandhan to NDA at the last moment and BJP had given 11 seats from his own quota.
Of the 11 seats, his party VIP managed to win four. In that election, BJP smartly gave 11 seats to VIP to get votes of Mallah. Four MLAs who were part of BJP in the past won the poll and three of them later joined the saffron party.
Overall, the track record of Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi, Pasupati Kumar Paras, Upendra Kushwaha and Mukesh Sahani is such that when their leading partners do well, they also perform well.
In the 2014, 2019 and 2020 Assembly elections, BJP was in the driver ‘s seat and benefitted Ram Vilash Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Mukesh Sahani.
It will be interesting to see how they would help BJP in 2024 especially when their opponent is INDIA which has an alliance of six parties.
Politically, Chirag Paswan and Pasupati Kumar Paras will have an edge if they decide not to fight with each other as there is no such Dalit leader in a stature of these two in Mahagathbandhan.
Ashok Chaudhary may throw a challenge to these two. RJD has Shyam Rajak as a Dalit leader For Jitan Ram Manjhi, JD(U) has Ratnesh Sada to counter him.
While JD(U) has Umesh Kushwaha as the state president of the party, RJD has Alok Mehta.
–IANS
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