Focus

New Delhi, Jan 11 (IANS) The future of regional cooperation in South Asia is currently at a pivotal juncture, shaped by its historical context. While initiatives such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) have largely failed to achieve the anticipated pan-regional free trade, another important forum, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), risks facing a similar fate unless significant intervention occurs from its largest member states, namely India and Bangladesh.

These concerns have been exacerbated by the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh in August 2024, which followed a prolonged student-led mass movement that resulted in the removal of long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

This development has been widely interpreted as indicative of a major shift in Bangladesh's domestic and foreign policy, particularly regarding its bilateral relations with India.

As Bangladesh navigates this new political landscape within the broader regional geopolitical context, it becomes essential for the country's new leadership -- regardless of its interim status -- to leverage Dhaka's strategic importance and continue contributing to regional cooperation grounded in mutual respect.

Despite the destabilising effects of the political upheaval in August 2024 and the external pressures on Dhaka to adjust its regional strategic relationships, potentially leading to a distancing from New Delhi, the Indo-Bangla relationship seems to be weathering these challenges with a notable degree of resilience.

As highlighted by Bangladesh’s Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman, this relationship is characterised by a "give-and-take" dynamic, where Dhaka's dependence on India aligns with New Delhi’s vested interests in maintaining stability in Bangladesh, alongside a growing convergence of their regional and global strategic objectives.

Furthermore, the ongoing alignment of mutual interests, particularly in promoting regional economic integration through frameworks such as BIMSTEC and SAARC, continues to strengthen this bilateral engagement.

These platforms not only have the potential to spark an economic revival across the region but also promise transformative socio-economic benefits, improving the livelihoods of millions in both nations.

Thus, this bilateralism emerges as a fundamental pillar for regional stability and prosperity, emphasising its vital role in shaping the geopolitical and economic landscape of South Asia.

BIMSTEC, or the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, is an interregional cooperative framework involving seven countries from South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Originally conceived as BIST-EC (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand Economic Cooperation) in 1997, the initiative aimed to enhance intra-regional trade, investment, and economic integration within the Bay of Bengal area.

Following the later inclusion of Myanmar, Bhutan, and Nepal, the organisation was officially renamed BIMSTEC during its inaugural summit in 2004. The primary goal of this grouping is to foster economic collaboration among its member states while addressing various sectors of mutual interest.

As of 2023, the BIMSTEC member nations collectively have a population exceeding 1.73 billion and a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of around $5.2 trillion.

Within this framework, India and Bangladesh, ranked as the first and third largest economies based on nominal GDP, play crucial roles.

Their economic dominance provides them with a level of strategic autonomy that facilitates the advancement of regional cooperation, allowing these countries to engage in multilateral initiatives with relative independence from external influences.

This dynamic highlights BIMSTEC's potential as a platform for establishing a restructured, regionally focused economic framework in the Bay of Bengal.

Major ports of BIMSTEC countries in the Bay of Bengal

The establishment of a permanent secretariat in Dhaka in 2014 marked a significant institutionalisation of BIMSTEC's operational framework, aimed at enhancing technical and economic collaboration among its member states.

Initially, the organisation delineated 14 priority sectors for cooperation, each overseen by a designated lead country to ensure focused management and effective execution. India assumed leadership in strategic domains such as Transport, Tourism, and Counter-Terrorism, while Bangladesh took the initiative in Trade and Investment.

However, recognizing the necessity for a more streamlined and outcome-oriented approach, the 2022 Colombo Summit—conducted virtually in response to the COVID-19 pandemic—embarked on a comprehensive restructuring of these cooperation sectors.

The summit aimed to “reduce, reconstitute, and construct” the cooperation framework by consolidating the original 14 sectors into seven core areas, with each member state entrusted with leadership over one sector.

Under this reconfiguration, Bangladesh now leads initiatives in Trade, Investment, and Development, whereas India has been assigned responsibility for Security and Energy Cooperation sectors.

The strategic positioning of the BIMSTEC member countries endows the bloc with considerable potential to facilitate economic integration through enhanced terrestrial and maritime connectivity.

For both India and Bangladesh, active engagement within this regional framework represents a significant opportunity to realise substantial economic gains.

For India, which boasts an annual trade volume exceeding $1,100 billion, BIMSTEC serves as a conduit to access the emerging markets of Southeast Asia, thereby aligning with its broader ‘Act East Policy’ and its aspirations to expand its economy to a $5 trillion threshold in the forthcoming years.

Furthermore, this platform provides a vital avenue for promoting the development of India’s eastern and northeastern regions, which have historically been perceived as economically underutilised.

BIMSTEC's connectivity initiatives provide Bangladesh, which has an annual trade volume exceeding $120 billion as of 2023, with a new cost-effective mechanism to diversify its export portfolio by accessing the Southeast Asian and broader ASEAN markets.

This is particularly crucial for the country's rapidly growing ready-made garment sector, which consistently seeks to expand its market reach beyond traditional western partners.

Consequently, BIMSTEC's integrative potential can significantly enhance Bangladesh’s economic presence within regional and global value chains, thereby reinforcing its role as a key player in the economic landscape of South Asia.

Despite the significant economic potential inherent in the BIMSTEC framework, the failure to operationalise the 2004 Framework Agreement on Free Trade has considerably impeded intra-bloc economic integration over the years.

The Agreement, which is ambitious in scope, sought to establish “effective trade and investment facilitating measures, including the simplification of customs procedures and the development of mutual recognition arrangements, among others".

However, notwithstanding this comprehensive mandate, member states have been unable to achieve a consensus on the implementation of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), thereby constraining the bloc's economic synergy.

This stagnation is reflected in the asymmetry of trade flows within the bloc.

For example, while annual trade between India and Bangladesh, as well as between India and Thailand, was recorded at over $15.83 billion and $17.29 billion respectively in 2023, trade among other member states has remained suboptimal.

This underscores the imperative for BIMSTEC member countries to re-engage in substantive negotiations, resolve outstanding issues, and operationalise the FTA to unlock its economic potential and promote deeper economic interdependence and shared prosperity throughout the Bay of Bengal region.

In the context of stagnation within regional cooperation frameworks, the recent advocacy by Bangladesh's Chief Advisor, Professor Muhammad Yunus, for the revitalisation of regional blocs such as SAARC presents a timely impetus for recalibration.

However, it would be judicious for Dhaka and New Delhi to prioritise the revitalisation of BIMSTEC, given its relatively lower friction points among member states, as a precursor to re-engaging with more contentious organisations like SAARC.

Despite the prevailing strains in India-Bangladesh relations, enhanced bilateral engagement between these two nations could exemplify to other BIMSTEC member states the feasibility of regional cooperation aimed at collective benefit and socioeconomic development.

Such a strategy could motivate other member states to strengthen bilateral trade relationships, thereby fostering an enabling environment for the eventual operationalisation of the long-stalled Free Trade Agreement within the BIMSTEC framework.

Nevertheless, the onus rests with India and Bangladesh to navigate the current tensions, which are exacerbated by external factors and actors, and to determine whether to permit these disruptions to impede progress or to reaffirm their commitment to advancing cooperation both bilaterally and multilaterally.

BIMSTEC, with its established institutional framework and shared regional aspirations, offers a viable platform for initiating this renewed trajectory of collaboration.

--IANS

scor/

Bonn, Jan 10 (IANS) The EU climate watchdog confirmed Friday that 2024 was the warmest year globally since records began in 1850, underscoring the intensifying impacts of climate change and the urgent need for decisive global action.

According to the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the year shattered multiple climate records, driven largely by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and amplified by a strong El Nino event.

C3S reported that the global average temperature for 2024 reached 15.1 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous record set in 2023 by 0.12 degrees Celsius and exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.6 degrees Celsius. For the first time, global temperatures crossed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold - a key marker in the Paris Agreement aimed at limiting global warming.

Throughout 2024, 11 out of 12 months recorded average temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. On July 22, the global average temperature peaked at 17.16 degrees Celsius.

Sea surface temperatures also hit record highs, with extra-polar ocean water averaging 20.87 degrees Celsius, while atmospheric water vapor increased by about 5 percent over the 1991-2020 average.

The melting of sea ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic added to the alarming trends, with Antarctic sea ice extent remaining near record lows for much of the year, and Arctic sea ice levels significantly reduced, particularly after July.

Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, said: "The climate is heating to levels we've spent years trying to avoid because countries are still burning huge amounts of oil, gas and coal."

In his New Year's address, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described 2024 as "deadly heat," warning of a "climate breakdown" in real-time and urging immediate action to dramatically reduce emissions and support the transition to renewable energy.

The extreme temperatures in 2024 fueled widespread heatwaves, wildfires, and floods, particularly in Southern Europe.

Countries like Italy, France, and Spain endured prolonged heatwaves, while Greece battled nearly 9,500 wildfires. These extreme conditions significantly strained public health systems and prompted large-scale evacuations.

Flooding in Spain and Germany caused extensive economic damage and displaced thousands, while severe drought emptied one of Bosnia's largest lakes, Lake Jablanicko in December.

According to the World Weather Attribution's (WWA's) annual report, the record global temperatures of 2024 directly intensified rainfall events, with 15 out of 16 floods studied linked to climate change.

The WWA report revealed that climate-related disasters in 2024 claimed at least 3,700 lives, displaced millions, and caused catastrophic damage to ecosystems. Coral reefs experienced unprecedented bleaching, threatening marine biodiversity and the industries reliant on these ecosystems.

"The Valencia floods, U.S. hurricanes, Philippines typhoons and Amazon drought are just four disasters last year that were worsened by climate change. There are many, many more," Otto told Xinhua news agency.

Looking ahead, climate experts warn that the extreme weather patterns witnessed in 2024 are likely to persist. Julien Nicolas, climate scientist at C3S, explained that while global temperatures may slightly decline in 2025 due to a transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions, the long-term warming trend remains intact.

"There are ups and downs in global temperatures due to natural processes, like El Nino," said Joeri Rogelj, research director at the Grantham Institute of Imperial College London. "But a small dip doesn't change the clear upward trajectory we're on."

Recognising the urgency, Carlo Buontempo, C3S director at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, stressed the importance of taking action now: "The future is in our hands -- swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate."

The World Meteorological Organization's forecast in December 2024 indicated a greater than 50 percent chance of La Nina conditions developing in the next three months.

"We are loading the dice ... toward these extreme climate events," Nicolas said, warning that heat waves and extreme rainfall events are likely to hit almost all continental regions.

--IANS

int/as

Seoul, Jan 9 (IANS) Major global credit rating agencies agreed on Thursday that the political uncertainty in South Korea has had a limited impact on the economy so far, yet warned of potential challenges if the situation is prolonged, the finance ministry said.

Moody's Investors Service, Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's Global Ratings shared the assessment during separate virtual meetings with acting President Choi Sang-mok, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance.

The agencies evaluated the immediate economic impact of the current political situation, stemming from President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief declaration of martial law on Dec. 3 and his subsequent impeachment, is minimal, reports Yonhap news agency.

However, they warned prolonged instability could deter foreign investment and influence corporate decision-making if the situation continues.

Choi assured the agencies that uncertainties will soon be resolved through the country's constitutional and legal systems.

He also emphasized the government's commitment to ensuring that major economic policies and legislative agendas are smoothly handled through a consultative body with the National Assembly.

Choi, who doubles as deputy prime minister for economic affairs, held similar meetings in early December before assuming interim leadership.

Meanwhile, President Yoon Suk Yeol's lawyers said they have filed for an injunction against a second warrant to detain him over his brief imposition of martial law.

Yun Gap-geun and other members of the impeached president's legal defense team made the remark during a meeting with foreign news outlets, saying the request was filed with the Constitutional Court, along with a request for adjudication on a competence dispute.

The Seoul Western District Court issued the warrant on Tuesday after investigators filed for an extension of their initial warrant that expired the previous day.

An attempt to execute the warrant last Friday failed after Yoon's bodyguards blocked investigators from entering the official presidential residence.

A second attempt is expected to be made in the coming days.

—IANS

na/

Bengaluru, Dec 18 (IANS) Amid rumours of change in leadership, Karnataka BJP President B.Y. Vijayendra met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday at his office in New Delhi and sought his blessings on the occasion of completion of one term in office.

After the meeting, Vijayendra stated, “I met the Honourable Prime Minister to seek his blessings on completing one year of taking charge as state President. The invaluable moments spent with Prime Minister Modi today have given us rays of inspiration for strengthening the party and contributing to the nation's progress.”

“The guidance and blessings received from him have filled us with boundless enthusiasm to strengthen the party in the state. His words during today’s meeting inspired us to design programmes that encourage greater youth participation, not only strengthening the organisation but also contributing to the nation-building process,” Vijayendra stated.

“Our esteemed Prime Minister, who has dedicated himself to building a Viksit Bharat (Developed India) with a great resolve and the dedication of a selfless achiever, serves as a constant source of inspiration for workers like us. His work ethic continuously energizes us,” he stated.

The meeting has assumed importance in the backdrop of a section of leadership in the BJP claiming that Vijayendra would be replaced in January.

Senior BJP leader and MLA Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, senior MLAs Ramesh Jarkiholi, Arvind Bellad, MLC C.T. Ravi, Union Ministers of State Shobha Karandlaje and V. Somanna and other senior leaders are miffed with the functioning of Vijayendra, according to sources.

One of the senior RSS functionaries who is kept out of state politics following the insistence of former CM B.S. Yediyurappa is also working against Vijayendra.

Former Chief Ministers and BJP MPs Basavaraj Bommai and Jagadish Shettar are also not keen on Vijayendra overtaking them, sources in the BJP stated.

All opponents are using MLA Yatnal to challenge and issue humiliating statements against Vijayendra and his father Yediyurappa.

Despite the warning from the party high command, MLA Yatnal had launched fresh attacks on Vijayendra and Yediyurappa on Tuesday.

Following the defeat in the recently-concluded bye-elections for three Assembly constituencies, MLA Yatnal had attacked that father and son (Yediyurappa and Vijayendra) should take the responsibility.

However, supporters of Vijayendra claim that he is emerging steadily as the mass leader who can deliver results for the party in the state and if the party fails to groom him, it will suffer.

The party has not been able to produce a mass leader after Yediyurappa who could match the stature of opponents like Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar.

--IANS

mka/rad

Jammu, Dec 12 (IANS) J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Thursday chaired a meeting of the Department of Floriculture, Parks, and Gardens to review its functioning and discuss strategies to enhance the sector’s potential, an official statement said.

Addressing the meeting, the Chief Minister highlighted the immense opportunities in the floriculture sector, especially with Kashmir Valley soon to be connected with the rest of the country through railways.

He emphasised the need to leverage this connectivity to market Kashmir’s flowers across India and globally.

“We must engage progressive growers and other stakeholders to fully realise the sector’s potential,” the Chief Minister said.

He further directed the department to plant tulips along Airport Road to enhance the aesthetic appeal and launch ad campaigns to attract more tourists to Srinagar’s iconic Tulip Garden.

Earlier, the Commissioner Secretary gave a detailed presentation on the department’s functioning, highlighting achievements and ongoing projects.

Key milestones and initiatives discussed included, Tulip Show 2024 in which a record 1.7 million tulips of 72 varieties were planted, attracting 4.46 lakh tourists in March 2024.

The meeting also discussed significant developments in the floriculture sector, including the establishment of ornamental cherry tree gardens (Sakura) and the creation of a Tulip Garden in Sanasar.

The establishment of peony and rose gardens at Pahalgam was also highlighted, alongside progress in the process of enlisting six historic Mughal Gardens as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Discussions further focused on various ongoing and upcoming projects aimed at the modernisation and enhancement of the region’s parks and gardens.

These included the upgradation of Bagh-e-Bahu Garden and the establishment of Bour Camp Garden in Jammu.

Other projects discussed were the development of chrysanthemum plantations at Udhampur, the upgradation of Badamwari, and the establishment of the Dara Shikoh Garden.

The creation of theme gardens at Gulmarg, the development of floriculture nurseries, and the establishment of a model flower centre in Jammu were also deliberated.

Additionally, plans for an amphitheatre and beautification projects at Bagh-e-Bahu were reviewed.

The Chief Minister emphasised the importance of modernising and mechanising garden maintenance to enhance efficiency while optimising resources and generating revenue. He urged the department to prioritise initiatives that boost the tourism potential of Jammu and Kashmir while preserving the region’s rich natural heritage.

The Chief Minister emphasised the need for modernisation and mechanisation of garden maintenance, resource optimisation, and revenue generation.

He urged the department to focus on projects that enhance the tourism potential of Jammu and Kashmir while preserving its natural heritage.

--IANS

zi/dan

Jaipur, Dec 9 (IANS) A joint declaration was signed between the Israeli Foreign Ministry and Rajasthan's Water Resources Department to enhance international cooperation in the water sector on the inaugural day of the 'Rising Rajasthan' Global Investment Summit 2024.

Additionally, a ‘Letter of Intent’ was also signed between the Government of Rajasthan and the Danish Embassy to collaborate on the revival of the Saraswati Paleochannel.

Union Minister for Culture and Tourism, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, addressed the session, emphasising the importance of water conservation. He stated that due to climate change, rainfall patterns have drastically changed, with some regions suffering from severe water scarcity while others face excess. To address these issues, he highlighted the need for efficient water management practices.

Shekhawat said that saving every drop of water is crucial for securing the future of upcoming generations. He further advocated for wastewater treatment, water recycling, and the reduction of irrigation water usage. The minister also praised Israel's successful water management technologies such as drip irrigation and sprinkler systems.

Water Resources Minister Suresh Singh Rawat noted that, in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of making India a developed nation by 2047, Rajasthan is hosting this three-day conference to attract significant investments and contribute to the nation’s growth.

He assured that the state government is committed to ensuring water security for future generations, with ongoing initiatives such as the Revised PKC-Integrated ERCP, the Yamuna Water MoU, and the Dewas project.

Additional Chief Secretary, Water Resources Department, Abhay Kumar, called for a collective effort to conserve and sustainably manage water resources, ensuring that every drop counts.

The session featured discussions among industry leaders, water resource experts, and other guests on the urgent need for sustainable water management in the face of climate change, rapid urbanisation, and increasing water demand.

--IANS

arc/dan